Tuesday 6
Resilience to drought in Monsoon-dominated semi-arid environments : analysis through computer simulation
Andrea Balbo, Matthieu Salpeteur
› 15:40 - 16:40 (1h)
› SULLY 3 BIS
Resilience to drought in Monsoon-dominated semi-arid environments: analysis through computer simulation
Andrea Balbo  1, *@  , Matthieu Salpeteur  2, *@  
1 : Complexity and Socio-Ecological Dynamics (CaSEs, www.cases-bcn.net) and SimulPast (http://simulpast.imf.csic.es/sp/), Istitució Milà i Fontanals, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas  (CaSEs, SimulPast, IMF-CSIC)
C/Egipciaques 15, 08001 Barcelona -  Espagne
2 : SimulPast, Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona  (ICTA-UAB)
Edifici C Campus de la UAB, 08193 Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), Barcelona, Spain -  Espagne
* : Corresponding author

Session chair(s): Andrea Balbo (a), Matthieu Salpeteur (b)

(a) Complexity and Socio-Ecological Dynamics (CaSEs, www.cases-bcn.net) and SimulPast (http://simulpast.imf.csic.es/sp/), Istitució Milà i Fontanals, Spanish National Research Council (IMF-CSIC), C/Egipciaques 15, 08001 Barcelona, Spain

(b) SimulPast, Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), Edifici C Campus de la UAB, 08193 Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), Barcelona, Spain 

Type of session: traditional (60 minutes):

Synopsis and structure of the session

Papers presented in this session are set in N Gujarat, a semi-arid region of NW India. The region is one the most exposed to drought within the Indian continent. In spite of that, human settlement is attested in the region throughout the Holocene. Over time, local populations have adapted to these specific environmental settings, developing specific socio-ecological strategies for resilience and sustainability. Works presented in this session explores how computer simulation and Agent Based Modelling can be used to analyse long-term trajectories for hazard-mitigation and resilience to drought in Monsoon-dominated semi-arid environments. 

Three papers will be presented (10 minutes each). Papers will have been previously circulated among participants (at least those presenting) to ease discussion. Discussion will be open to the public and last for 30 minutes following presentations. Starting from results presented in the different case studies, discussion will focus on the following key concepts:

 

Challenges for analyzing resilience to drought in Monsoon-dominated semi-arid environments using computer simulation:

  • Backstage: degree of abstraction and labor behind the models
  • Utility of proposed models for resilience to drought in Monsoon-dominated semi-arid environments
  • Insight into the effects of integrating traditional strategies and new technologies
  • Knowledge transmission, adaptation and transformation relative to drought recurrence
  • Usefulness of long-term trajectories, archaeology and anthropology
  • Contributions

    Papers in this session explore changes in social-ecological systems (i.e. hunter-gatherer and agro-pastoral communities, past and present) in tropical semi-arid environments. Works presented here explore resilience in terms of population performance in an environment characterized by high short-term variability in precipitation. Adaptive strategies explored in this session include reversibility between strategies of resource use and the effects of the integration of new technologies and traditional knowledge. These changes are analysed at different spatial and temporal scales.

    Contributions to the session are coherent in terms of geographical contexts and methodology, leading to a degree of overlap between presented works. Although interlinked, the three papers present different perspectives on the core topics explored in this session. This session is meant for resilience scientists and policy makers to discuss and provide feedback on the quality and relevance of the long-term integrated approach proposed in the three contributions:

    1. Balbo, Andrea et al. (balbo@imf.csic.es)

    Istitució Milà i Fontanals, Spanish National Research Council (IMF-CSIC)

    Resilience to precipitation variability in tropical semi-arid environments. An Agent-Based Modelling approach to Holocene population dynamics in Kutch-Saurashtra, Gujarat, India

     

    2. Crema, Enrico et al. (e.crema@ucl.ac.uk).

    ERC EUROEVOL, UCL Institute of Archaeology

    Modelling Cultural Transmission of Subsistence Strategies in Monsoon dominated semi-arid environments

     

    3. Rubio-Campillo, Xavier et al. (xavier.rubio@bsc.es)

    Barcelona Supercomputing Centre (BSC)

    Mobile phones for mobile people: The effects of affordable cellular communication technology on the resilience of traditional shepherds in Gujarat, India

     

     



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