Tuesday 6
Using Fuzzy Logic Cognitive Mapping as a participatory approach to understand structure, dynamics and change in social-ecological systems.
Steven Gray, Stefan Gray, Barry O'Dwyer
› 11:35 - 12:30 (55min)
› JOFFRE C
Integrating knowledge on climate change adaptation at the local scale by using Fuzzy-logic Cognitive Mapping as a tool to explore resilience and cope with uncertainty
Stefan Gray  1@  
1 : Coastal and Marine Research Centre, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork  (CMRC)  -  Website
Lewis Glucksman Marine Research Facility Irish Naval Base Haulbowline Island Cobh, Co. Cork -  Irlande

There is an increasingly urgent need to initiate climate adaptation processes at the local scale, particularly among vulnerable coastal communities where the impacts of climate change are likely to be felt in the short to medium term. Despite this pressing need, there is often a profound disconnect between the perceptions of local scale decision-makers and national scale policy makers on the role of climate in shaping future outcomes, and the formulation and prioritization of appropriate adaptive responses. Additionally, gathering data on the impacts of climate change at the local scale is expensive and subject to a cascade of uncertainties, often precluding it from use in local decision contexts – limiting the coherence of cross-scale adaptation and decision-making. In this presentation, we suggest that the uncertainty associated with climate change impacts can be successfully bridged across management decision-making scales by integrating local, tacit knowledge with broader scale scientific knowledge on climate change impacts using Fuzzy-logic Cognitive Mapping (FCM). Using a case study from coastal communities in Ireland, we demonstrate how FCM can be used as a tool to integrate knowledge at different scales during a planning process aimed at facilitating climate change resilience assessment and adaptation planning under uncertainty. By allowing local decision makers to construct an FCM systems model of the local coastal area, and negotiating with them how the model is forced at its boundary by higher scale variables (such as climate change), we suggest that the interaction between climate change, ecosystem services and societal benefits can become better understood through scenario analysis.

Note: This presentation is being submitted as part of the proposed session: Using Fuzzy Logic Cognitive Mapping as a participatory approach to understand structure, dynamics and change in social-ecological systems.


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