Monday 5
Marine regime shifts around the globe : theory, drivers, and impacts
Norström Albert
› 11:05 - 18:00 (6h55)
› IFREMER Sète
Anticipating marine regime shifts: the limits to detection
Vasilis Dakos  1@  , Stephen Carpenter, Egbert Van Nes, Marten Scheffer@
1 : Estacion Biologica de Donana, CSIC  -  Website

Despite the growing number of empirical cases that supports the idea of using early-warnings to detect regime shifts, our ability to detect regime shifts in advance is still constrained by a variety of conceptual, operational and methodological reasons. Here we use simple examples to map the conditions under which such detection ability is severely limited. We also highlight practical constrains encountered when applying early-warnings. Lastly we advocate a reinterpretation of early-warnings as an indirect measure of ecosystem resilience. Our work may be viewed as a guardrail to navigate away of inappropriate applications or misinterpretations. Although our starting point is the marine regime shifts, our findings apply for a wide range of socio-ecological systems.

 

This submission is aimed for a special session on Marine regime shifts around the globe: theory, drivers, and impacts organised by Albert Norström, Magnus Nyström, Alessandra Conversi


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