Monday 5
Marine regime shifts around the globe : theory, drivers, and impacts
Norström Albert
› 11:05 - 18:00 (6h55)
Human and natural drivers of multiple coral reef regimes across the Hawaiian Archipelago
Jean-Baptiste Jouffray  1, *@  , Magnus Nyström  1@  , Albert Norström  1@  , Ivor Williams  2@  , Lisa Wedding  3@  , John Kittinger  3, 4@  , Gareth Williams  5@  
1 : Stockholm Resilience Centre  (SRC)  -  Website
Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University Kräftriket 2B SE-106 91 Stockholm -  Suède
2 : Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research  (JIMAR)
1125B Ala Moana Boulevard, Honolulu, HI 96814, USA -  États-Unis
3 : Stanford University, Center for Ocean Solutions  (Stanford COS)  -  Website
99 Pacific Street, Suite 555E Monterey, CA 93940 Phone: 831-333-2077 -  États-Unis
4 : Hawaii Fish Trust, Conservation International
Conservation International 7192 Kalanianaole Hwy, Ste G-230 Honolulu, Hawaii 96825 -  États-Unis
5 : Scripps Institution of Oceanography
University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA -  États-Unis
* : Corresponding author

Session: Marine regime shifts around the globe: theory, drivers, and impacts

Loss of coral reef resilience can lead to dramatic changes in benthic structure, often called regime shifts, which significantly alter ecosystem processes and functioning. In the face of global change and increasing direct human impacts, there is an urgent need to anticipate and prevent undesirable regime shifts, and conversely, to reverse shifts in already degraded reef systems. Such challenges require a better understanding of the human and natural drivers that support or undermine different reef regimes. The Hawaiian archipelago extends across a wide gradient of natural and anthropogenic conditions and provides a unique opportunity to investigate the relationships between multiple reef regimes, their dynamics and potential drivers. We applied a combination of exploratory ordination methods and inferential statistics to one of the most comprehensive coral reef datasets available in order to detect, visualize and define potential multiple ecosystem regimes. The present study demonstrates the existence of three distinct reef regimes dominated by hard corals, turf algae, or macroalgae. Results from Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) show non-linear patterns among predictors that explain the occurrence of these regimes, and highlight herbivore biomass as the key driver in addition with effluent, latitude and depth.

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