Monday 5
Vulnerability and Resilience of Livestock Farming Systems Facing Global Changes
Jean F. Tourrand
› 11:05 - 18:00 (6h55)
› La Courvertoirade / Le Caylar
To what extent can droughts drive transformations of pastoral households?
Romina Martin  1, 2, *@  , Anja Linstädter  3@  , Karin Frank  4, 5, 6@  , Birgit Müller  4@  
1 : Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries  (IGB)  -  Website
2 : Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University
3 : Botanical Institute, University of Cologne
4 : Helmholtz-centre for environmental research  (UFZ)  -  Website
Permoserstr. 15 04318 Leipzig -  Allemagne
5 : Institute for Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrück
6 : iDiv - German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle-Jena-Leipzig  (iDiv)
* : Corresponding author

Livestock grazing in drylands supports pastoral livelihoods but is facing multiple changes including shocks such as drought. Often, herdsmen mentioned specifically drought events as the reason for their exits from pastoralism. The purpose of this study is to assess the relevance of drought as driving force for losses of livelihood security leading to a specific systemic change - the exit of households from pastoralism.

We present and apply a framework for systematic analyses of the social-ecological functioning of pastoral resource use that consists of the following components: (1) A spatially social-ecological model for analysing the system dynamics, esp. in face of drought (2) an operationalized measure for assessing livelihood security and (3) a strategy for systematic vulnerability assessments of pastoral households by scenario comparison. Exemplarily, this approach is applied to the land use system of the transhumant pastoralists in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco.

The results indicate that, only in few cases, drought is the main threat to livelihood security forcing households to exit from pastoralism. Instead of, other (endogenous and exogenous) sources of variability were found to be the main driving force for vulnerability, depending on the household characteristics such as income needs and the level of pastoral mobility. These driving forces dominate over the effects of drought. We discuss implications on the role of drought in interplay with other processes of global change such as social change and land use change for livelihood security in pastoral systems.

Moreover, on the basis of these findings, some conclusions are drawn on adequately exploring the relevance of shocks as driving force of systemic changes in coupled human-nature-systems. These conclusions concern the interplay of exogenous and endogenous factors, the propagation of changes through the coupled system, upscaling and the response to uncertainty and unintended side-effects of intended changes.

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