Tuesday 6
Systemic Integrated Resilience and Adaptation Planning
Ariella Helfgott, Joost Vervoort, Meghan Bailey
› 11:35 - 12:30 (55min)
› JOFFRE 1-1
Adaptable scope: scenarios to guide diverse decision pathways in multi-level, multi-actor social-ecological systems
Joost Vervoort  1@  , Philip Thornton, Polly Ericksen, Patti Kristjanson, Christine Jost, Ariella Helfgott  2@  , Mario Herrero, Amanda Palazzo, Wiebke Foerch, Kasper Kok, Daniel Mason-D'croz, Petr Havlik@
1 : University of Oxford (UK)  (Oxford)  -  Website
2 : Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford  (ECI)  -  Website
Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment South Parks Road Oxford -  Royaume-Uni

Asking “adaptation to what?” - understanding the context for adaptation - is essential for decision-making that aims to increase adaptive capacity in social-ecological systems. The approach of using multiple plausible scenarios can be used as a tool to help decision-makers scope out future uncertainties that may challenge adaptive capacity. However, when scenarios are developed with and for a wide range of actors across system dimensions and levels, the question of what the relevant scope for such scenarios should be becomes challenging. We present the results from scenarios development and use processes by the CGIAR programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in the context of adaptation to climate and socio-economic change in five global regions: East Africa, West Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia and Latin America.We have applied a combination of explorative qualitative/quantitative multi-stakeholder scenarios development (to explore contexts for adaptation) and normative back-casting (to generate adaptation pathways) with stakeholders from different sectors and at different system levels.Two strategies were used: 1) a centralized strategy of bringing a range of actors together at the regional level to explore new collaborative actions for improved adaptive capacity and 2) the application of scenarios to the guidance of specific existing decision pathways (policies, investments). The strengths and drawbacks of both strategies will be discussed. For the second approach, scenarios were adapted by different actor groups to ensure their salience in specific decision contexts, for instance in various sectors or at the national to local level.We will focus on the example of adapting scenarios to provide a relevant scope for national to local decision-making on increasing adaptive capacity in the Systemic Integrated Adaptation program presented in the “Systemic Integrated Resilience and Adaptation Planning” panel. We will include a participatory element to experiment with the presented method.

 


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