Tuesday 6
Using scenarios to explore plausible social-ecological futures
Garry Peterson
› 15:40 - 16:40 (1h)
› JOFFRE 1-1
Using scenarios to explore plausible social-ecological future contexts for the Malaria challenge and its potential solutions
Demian Snel  1, *@  , Joost Vervoort  2@  
1 : Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security  (CCAFS)  -  Website
2 : Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford  (ECI)  -  Website
Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment South Parks Road Oxford -  Royaume-Uni
* : Corresponding author

Malaria as a vector-borne disease is a prime example of the need for research to study human-nature interactions as integrated social-ecological systems. Socio-economic, technological and environmental dimensions all interact to generate complex and changing conditions that effect the dynamics of the disease. These contexts generate a high level of uncertainty around future impacts of Malaria. Scenarios methodology is a useful tool to explore the implications of plausible futures and generate feasible decision pathways. However, so far, only climate scenarios or very limited socio-economic scenarios have been used to explore the future of Malaria. In a case study in East Africa under the Healthy Futures program, we invited regional Malaria experts and policy advisers to a participatory scenario workshop. In this workshop, the participants adapted and extended existing scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways of the IPCC-related community and East African scenarios developed by the CGIAR programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security) to explore Malaria-specific socio-economic drivers such as malnutrition, urbanization and information access. We explored how these drivers could supplement existing scenarios to make them more appropriate and comprehensive tools to inform regional Malaria policy. We present insights generated through this process of scenarios adaptation from broad contextual drivers for enhancing resilience to Malaria as an example of an integrated challenge in social-ecological systems.

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