Wednesday 7
Metrics for Adaptive Capacity and Resilience
Fabrice Declerck
› 11:35 - 12:30 (55min)
› Antigone 1
Analysis of Household Resilience in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Communities: A Case Study of Uganda
Carlo Azzarri  1, *@  , Melanie Bacou  1@  , Katharine Downie  2, *@  
1 : International Food Policy Research Institute  (IFPRI)  -  Website
2 : International Livestock Research Institute  (ILRI)  -  Website
* : Corresponding author

We propose to revisit the derivation of household resilience indices (as described in Alinovi et al. 2008. and Alinovi et al. 2010) with a particular focus on resilience to drought within pastoral livelihood systems of Uganda (and possibly Tanzania). The Alinovi method was first used against the 2007 Palestinian Public Perception Survey, then augmented in 2010 in the Kenyan context using results from the 2005/06 Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey. This research provides an important synthesis between traditional livelihood approaches and novel more dynamic analyses of community and household resilience.

In this paper we propose to extend Alinovi's approach into two directions:

1) incorporate broader system dimensions into the analytical framework, in particular bio-physical and market factors (e.g. local and regional agro-ecological characteristics, climate variability and market-chain integration).

2) expand upon the unsupervised principal component analysis using parametric regression techniques (OLS) aimed at further explaining the relationship between household resilience and a reduced set of predictive variables.

Our objective is twofold, 1) compare the resilience of pastoral households in Uganda livestock corridor against other livelihood groups (esp. agro-pastoralists) with a view to better identify and quantify the specific components affecting the livelihood strategies and options of these communities; and 2) generate a reduced form of the Alinovi model with the intend to construct a rapid resilience assessment tool for pastoral communities.

In Alinovi et al. resilience is defined as a function of key household-level characteristics, incl. income and food access, agricultural production and non-agricultural assets, agricultural practice and technology, access to public services, social safety-nets, stability, and adaptive capacity. A two-stage factor analysis is used to first quantify each component separately and subsequently to quantify the combined contribution of all components into an overall resilience variable. Resilience indices (weighted sums of the factors generated in step 2) are further constructed for specific livelihood groups. For Kenya results show maximum resilience for agro-pastoralist groups and lowest resilience for households identified as pastoralists, with the difference largely driven by lower access to public services and lower "stability" (heightened prevalence of external shocks) in the case of pastoralists.

Our data sources comprise spatially-referenced biophysical layers from HarvestChoice, and household-level micro data derived from a combination of national datasets for Tanzania and Uganda (incl. the 2007 Tanzania Agricultural Census, 2007 Household Budget Survey, 2008/09 Tanzania National Panel Survey, 2005/06 Uganda National Household Survey, 2008 Uganda Livestock Census, and the 2009 Uganda Panel Survey).


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