Tuesday 6
Ecosystems services and sustainable intensification : Trade-offs analysis with biophysical and participatory modeling approaches
Fred Kizito, Christophe Le Page, Leigh Winowiecki
› 11:35 - 12:30 (55min)
The role of interactive agent-based simulation modeling platforms for tradeoff analysis in participatory approaches for integrated water resources management
Christophe Le Page  1@  , Fred Kizito, Jean-Philippe Venot, William's Daré@
1 : Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement  (CIRAD - UPR Green)  -  Website
Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD]
Campus International de Baillarguet TA C-47/F 34398 Montpellier 5 -  France

A participatory modeling approach involving multiple stakeholders was conducted for a watershed located in the Upper East Region of Ghana. The profile of stakeholders included farmers, district assembly and regional officials as well as national policy makers. Three sets of participatory modeling workshops were organized in October 2011, June 2012 and May 2013. The interactive agent-based simulation model, developed with the Cormas generic platform, was introduced during the second set of participatory modeling workshops, as a tool to “replay” the role-playing game sessions to support discussions about plausible land use changes. Land cover in this region was broadly categorized into 4 clusters: intensive cropping, forest, mixed vegetation (crop and trees) and natural vegetation. Four scenarios were developed to explore the impact of land use changes on food security and environmental integrity using a 15-year timeframe. The scenarios were business as usual (BAU) (scenario 0), reduced cropland replaced by forest and mixed vegetation along riparian areas (scenario 1), planted trees and vegetation along riparian areas with forest replacing mixed vegetation (scenario2), increased cropland in the entire landscape (scenario 3). In the event of extreme climatic shocks such as flooding, food production decreased under scenarios 1 and 2 with more prominent declines observed for scenario 2 yet scenario 3 depicted only marginal decreases from the BAU scenario and further increased in years 13 to 15. The environmental index for scenario 1 showed minimal increases from the BAU scenario and scenario 3 showed a steady increment in the environmental index. Interestingly, for scenario 2, though it showed minimal benefit for food production, it posted a steady exponential increase in the environmental index throughout the simulation cycle. These dynamics indicate the inherent tradeoffs that are characteristic of complex landscapes in which poor farmers have to make a choice for their survival and livelihood, the key question this study helps to address is how this can be achieved with a lower environmental footprint. 

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