Tuesday 6
Advancing the measurement of resilience to food insecurity
M. d'Errico
› 11:30 - 12:30 (1h)
› Antigone 1
An econometric approach to measure how household resilience changes over-time due to the occurrence of shocks
Alberto Zezza  1@  , Marco D'errico  2@  
1 : World Bank
2 : Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN  (FAO)

The capacity of a household to make a living depends on the options available and the capacity to respond to risks. Climate change trends, geo-political instability, economic crisis have produced a new set of risks whose role in determining a household livelihood has become increasingly difficult to understand and evaluate. The concept of resilience has gained interest as a mean to understand household's capacity to cope with risk and bounce back to pre-crisis level of well-being (e.g. food security).

In order to produce evidence (needs and gap) with regard to the vulnerability of household living in dynamic and fluid context (like rural and remote areas are), this paper aims at studying the interaction between the occurrence of shocks and the household resilience.

For the sake of this exercise a model is needed that include a resilience analysis which is able to keep track of occurred shocks, while at the same time profiling households according to their exposure to risk. Drawing on (i) information on different types of shocks that are available in household surveys, and (ii) information on shocks that can be generated from geo-referenced datasets linked to the household surveys the authors profiled households according to different shocks and tested how these influenced changes over-time in the resilience level.

In this paper, a methodology to measure resilience through panel data from the World Bank LSMS-ISA new generation surveys is employed to evaluate whether it is possible to accurately predict which livelihood or vulnerability profile will be more affected by different types of shocks. Also, an attempt is made to test how the accuracy as robust predictor of the resilience index changes over different types of shocks.



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