Wednesday 7
Metrics for Adaptive Capacity and Resilience
Fabrice Declerck
› 11:35 - 12:30 (55min)
› Antigone 1
Adaptive capacity of terrestrial moisture recycling societies: Integrating social-ecological dynamics to reveal clues for resilience
Patrick Keys  1, 2@  , Line Gordon  1@  
1 : Stockholm Resilience Center  (SRC)  -  Website
2 : Colorado State University  (CSU)  -  Website
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523 USA -  États-Unis

Human dependence on rainfall constitutes a critical area of research for global and regional sustainability efforts. Past research has identified global agricultural regions that receive a majority of growing season rainfall from land surface evaporation. Given the potentially large impact land cover change can have on downwind rainfall, this research explores the adaptive capacity of rainfall sink regions to be able to respond to uncertain changes in upwind evaporation source regions. Here, we focus on the biophysical and social dimensions of what influences adaptive capacity. The scope of this research is global, and we employ data from the last three decades (1979-2012). First, we define the relative biophysical dependence of a given region on upwind terrestrial sources of rainfall. We do this by identifying the fraction of rainfall originating from upwind land surfaces, and by identifying the type and amount of ecosystem services that are used locally. Second, we characterize the local, social dynamics in terms of the relative levels of human well-being, using a combination of existing and novel frameworks. Third, we combine the biophysical and social analyses to create an index of the adaptive capacity of global regions to changes in local rainfall induced by upwind land cover. Finally, we discuss how non-linear changes in upwind areas, such as forest to savannah regime shifts, interact with this index of adaptive capacity, and whether the results reveal clues for how to increase local resilience to these potentially surprising changes.

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